14 DAY TRIAL // Slated to roll out in early 2015, Apple’s first new product in more than 4 years is not going to generate long queues, according to one prominent figure on Wall Street who has a track record spotted with inaccuracies.
The prediction comes from Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, a well-known figure in the Apple blogosphere for predicting the company’s foray in the television market each and every year.
Munster shifts gears, now talks Apple Watch
After laying his old predictions to rest this year, Munster now has his eyes on the upcoming wearable device slated by Apple to enter the market in early 2015. According to a leaked conversation between the company’s retail management and staffers, the release will occur no later than the end of spring or towards the end of Apple’s second fiscal quarter for 2015.
Based on research conducted by Munster in recent times, only 7 percent of existing iPhone owners currently plan to acquire the wearable. This is a 3-point decline from the 10 percent estimated in September. The analyst therefore concludes that customers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach.
“We continue to believe the Watch can be an important product for Apple, but expect first year sales to be modest,” Munster writes.
Customer mentality
It isn’t clear how these statistics came about, but we can certainly chalk up some error margins. However, common sense alone will tell you that these surveys mean nothing. Ask any power user whether they’ll buy something, and they won’t even hesitate to give you their “expert” opinion, along with a prediction that they “might buy.”
Has anyone heard any surveys where respondents admit that they probably won’t be able to afford one in the first place? Is Munster only asking the rich demographic? If he is, then those statistics clearly don’t reflect reality. Regardless of what some people might think, the long lines generated by every new iPhone launch are not mainly comprised of rich folks, or even people who are doing well. Some are so fanatical about owning the latest iPhone that they'll even sell a kidney to own one. No joke, it's been known to happen.
If anything, the hype surrounding the impending launch of the watch should have doubled the amount of Apple fans looking to secure one. The fact that this number has diminished as we approach the release tells us that:
a) respondents are getting cold feet as they realize they spoke too soon (most likely); b) Munster hasn't taken all the necessary steps to properly assess the situation (somewhat likely, considering his other predictions); c) respondent mood at the time of the interview was not on par with a planned Apple purchase (least likely).
In any case, don’t be surprised to see at least some Apple stores overwhelmed by traffic on launch day. Call it a hunch.
